Rolled Tide
"Tommy Football" and Florida State Dominate Alabama
The Exorcism of Florida State Football
That was cathartic. Last weekend, Florida State’s football team rose from the ashes of a 2-10 season to absolutely demolish Alabama. The team that the college football playoff committee elevated over the ‘Noles 20 months ago. The team that they were not predicted to beat by nearly anyone, myself included. Throughout my preview, I argued that Florida State could absolutely beat Alabama, and had better odds than most people gave them credit for. Friends, what we saw on Saturday in Doak Campbell Stadium was not a proverbial rolling of a 6. That was an exorcism of every demon that has plagued this program dating back to December 2023.
The way this exorcism happened is statistically remarkable. There isn’t a lot of readily available analysis for a 13.5 underdog not only winning but doubling the point spread. Especially not against a top 10 team, much less against Alabama. We are talking about an extreme tail outcome, the kind you almost never see. Yet see it we did. Nick couldn’t save them. The ghost of Bobby Bowden smiled down—and for good reason. The ‘Noles put on an incredible show.
So how did Florida State do it? While the final score may have been surprising, the way that Florida State won was not. I identified the following key points in my preview detailing Florida State’s path to victory:
The lines of scrimmage needed to hold up
The defense needed to keep Alabama from operating with offensive efficiency
FSU’s offense needed to take advantage of Alabama’s relatively low success rate against the run
Tommy Castellanos needed to be the difference maker for the FSU offense
Let’s walk through how these points held up with a game rewatch and by examining the advanced stats from the good folks over at Games on Paper.
The Lines Dominated
In the preview, I expressed concern about Florida State’s ability to hold up at the point of attack against Alabama’s highly talented defensive line and offensive line. Some injury luck was on the Seminoles side, as DL Tim Keenan III was unavailable due to injury. Still, those concerns were quickly put to rest on Saturday. Florida State’s offense posted an EPA per drop back of 0.13 and an EPA per rush of 0.15, while Alabama’s offense managed just -0.02 EPA per drop back and -0.06 EPA per rush. That doesn’t happen if of Florida State’s lines play at a high level.
And play well they did. Florida State’s lines dominated Alabama’s. Not every snap—Alabama’s roster is far too talented for that outcome—but when it mattered most. On early downs, both offenses had a similar success rate with Florida State’s offense putting up 0.07 EPA per play and Alabama’s offense putting up 0.04 EPA per play — both slightly above average for what we would statistically expect for an offensive down. But on late downs, the “money” downs? Florida State’s offense was explosive, putting up 0.40 EPA per play. Conversely, Alabama’s offense imploded at -0.19 EPA per play. That swing wasn’t possible without dominant line play Florida State on both sides of the ball. It also isn’t possible without impressive schematic work from Florida State’s coordinators.
A Defense Attacking in Waves
Tony White, welcome to Tallahassee! When the color commentary is comparing your defense to a Mickey Andrews defense, you know the team has played hard and aggressive football—and that was obvious on the rewatch. Florida State let Alabama know early that they were in for a dogfight, and they brought the physicality all game. In the preview, I mentioned that Tony White mixed 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 looks, and that played out often on Saturday. What I did not expect was for 25 defensive players to play, 23 of which played over 10 snaps. From experience, it’s easier to bring your best and play physical when you’re fresh, and White clearly understands that with his personnel rotation.
I also noted that Tony White’s defenses tend to bring exotic pressures, employing a mix of alignment shifts pre-snap and a combination of stunts and blitzes post-snap to muddy the quarterback’s read. With the combined factors of the DeBoer/Grubb offense tending to rely on an efficient passing game, and Ty Simpson’s relatively inefficient career numbers going into the game, I flagged this as a potential mismatch.
Fortunately for the ‘Noles, that mismatch materialized quickly. Alabama attempted 46 passes compared to just 26 runs, 12 of which came on their first drive of the game. While the shift towards passing was partially driven by Florida State building a 17-point lead in the third quarter, Alabama had already started leaning on their passing game by their second drive. Simpson performed near his career averages, completing 53% of his passes, while posting a -0.02 EPA per pass and a -16% win probability added (WPA). Much of that ineffectiveness stemmed from Florida State’s defense generating 3 sacks on the day and several more pressures. White had his defense attacking relentlessly all day, setting the offense in prime position to take control of the game.
The “Gus Bus” Rolls On
Gus Malzahn does it again to Alabama. In the preview, I noted that Kane Wommack’s defense last year struggled with success rate against the run, a weakness that could matchup poorly against Malzahn’s rushing attack. Once again, this potential mismatch became a reality to Florida State’s benefit.
Gus was in his bag early and often against the Crimson Tide, using his smash-mouth running concepts to get Alabama’s defense to key in on motion pre-snap and pulling linemen post-snap, before absolutely putting the unit in a blender on key plays. The two reverses to Micahi Danzy were perfect examples—including a fake pull that pivoted into a lead blocker on his first touchdown run. Gus’s creative play, paired with the offense’s sharp execution, produced explosive plays on 13% of Florida State’s total snaps. Malzahn’s game plan could not have been better tailored to exploit Alabama’s defensive weakness, and it was executed nearly flawlessly by the offense, particularly the offense and team’s leader, Tommy Castellanos.
“I Just Don’t See Them Stopping Me”
I was admittedly not a huge fan of the comments Tommy Castellanos made over the offseason. I tend to be more “don’t poke the bear” in my life philosophy. However, he’s since noted that the comments were meant to inspire confidence in his team, and it is clear from watching this game—his strategy worked. As a result, this is absolutely his team.
Castellanos put on a show using his arm and his legs, putting up an EPA per pass of 0.13, an EPA per rush of 0.35, and adding a combined WPA of 15%. Castellanos was clutch in big moments too, picking up several key first downs and establishing a deep passing threat early with a 40-yard pass to Squirrel White. This throw was absolutely critical in making Alabama respect Florida State’s passing game, and in keeping boxes light enough to allow for the running game to flourish all day. Florida State’s offense’s first and final drives both featured long runs by Castellanos for key first downs. His play and leadership were instrumental in Florida State pulling the upset, and he was a perfect choice to break the rock following the win.
Castellanos has now pulled off upsets against top 10 teams in Tallahassee for two consecutive years. With a likely highly ranked Miami coming to town next month, let’s hope he’s not done for this season.
What Happens Now?
This win undoubtedly changes the outlook on Florida State’s season. The team went from being unranked to being ranked 19th in the coaches poll and 14th in the AP poll. Expectations have risen substantially. So far, early interviews from Mike Norvell have indicated that the team has handled the increase in expectations, has been practicing well, and has not “drank the poison” as FSU/NFL alumni and CBS analyst Bryant McFadden warned against.
That’s going to be crucial over the next month with three winnable games, including one that is technically a trophy game. As long as Florida State takes care of business in each of the next three games, they should enter the Miami game undefeated. It’s still too early to tell what this team will become to make any real projections going forward, and the next three games are going to provide some substantial early season data on what the team is working on improving. This was only game one for both coordinators and many new, key roster pieces. If this team continues to improve, as Mike Norvell teams tend to do (2024 aside), then it’s hard to imagine a ceiling for this group. However, the floor has definitely been raised with this upset.
Unless things get substantially more interesting in the lead up to the battle for the Jefferson-Eppes Trophy, I’ll save the next deep dive for Miami. Until then, I’m going to continue to enjoy the first breath of sweet, fresh air that this fanbase has been desperately craving. What a great day to be a Florida State Seminole!